Report reveals battlegrounds which could unseat seven Tory MPs in the capital
A report published by Datapraxis has revealed key seats in London which have the potential to unseat 7 Conservative MPs – including Dominic Raab and Iain Duncan Smith – reinforcing the idea that tactical voting is critical in determining the outcome of the upcoming election.
The Seven Seats report reveals that marginal Conservative seats such as Richmond Park, currently held by Tory MP and former mayoral candidate Zac Goldmsith, are likely to be lost with Lib Dem candidate Sarah Olney projected to not only shave off the small majority of 45, but also increase her majority to 12,849. Being in the same area as Roehampton University, an increase of 10% in under-40 voter turnout could not only spell the end of Goldsmith in Richmond, but also the end of other Tory MPs clinging onto seats across the country by the same effect.
Other student constituencies such as Uxbridge and South Rusilip, the seat of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself, have also been deemed to be steal territory for Labour. With Johnson clinging on to a majority of 5034.,the smallest of any prime minister since 1924, Labour candidate Ali Milani, former President of the Brunel Student Union, is looking to spearhead the Brunel student voter surge to unseat the PM. This movement could be reinforced by the flexible positions of the other party candidates to allow for a tactical victory.
Other data in the report reveals that Dominic Raab could lose his pro-remain Esher seat to the Lib Dems , whilst Iain Duncan Smith’s Chingford and Woodford Green majority could be slashed by the Labour challenger Faiza Shaheen. Shaheen is referred to by some as the “British Alexandra Ocasio Cortez”.
The report also highlights the key role of social media in influencing the outcome of the election, negating claims from the Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab that “no-one gives a toss about social media cut and thrust”. Groups such as Young Instagram Progressives and Anti-Tory Heartlands have been named as organisations playing key roles to swing the vote in marginals, with further reports providing analysis of their influence expected in the coming week.
Datapraxis, a polling and election modelling service providing data for elections across Europe, is headed by former Labour General Secretary candidate Paul Hilder, and accurately predicted the results of 93% of the seats in the UK in the 2017 general election.
Mikail Javaid is London Student’s Assistant News Editor (Politics).
Photo credit: John Cameron on Unsplash